Posts Tagged ‘不作恶’

Thoughts on Google (tr)

April 23, 2010 |  by  |  Google, TMT  |  2 Comments

Statistics:

Adam Smith, such a genius and great man for the past few centuries, brought up a well known Hypothesis of Economic Man which states that rational man is selfish and  driven by economic interests. His statement has been a very hot debating topic, ups and downs, but still widely recognized.

But remember, there are assumptions on his statement. People makes bullshit which apparently makes sense simply because he or she does not notice those assumptions. For example, google’s interest theory.

Why google’s theory on interest is not consistent with the rational economic man hypothesis? Let the economics theory answer this for us.
From Adam Smith to utilitarians, and then Keynes, people are considered to be selfish for their own interests, but none of them has denied that people are sometimes non-selfish for their choices from the other perspective. However, the exceptions under the hypothesis do not prevent us using the hypothesis explaining the social phenomenon driven by interest. This is because the the hypothesis of rational economic man is based on the overall national statistics. Someone quotes the example saying, then why Martin Luther King quitted his decent job as a lawyer and why Oskar Schindler saved those Jews on his own risk for almost nothing? Statistics tells you it just doesn’t matter since those people are outliers in the normal distribution.
In fact, it is understandably that most of the excellent individuals and organizations are among the statistical outliers.

Only swindler plays around the hypothesis in that way, strict economist does not.

Logic:

There are people trying to make a convincing point that it’s for google’s benefit to pull out its service from China’s market.

“If Google has to lose its $600 million in revenues from China by pulling out of the country, then at the very least it’s won a lot in brand and integrity points by the public, English-language and scorched-earth way they did it.”
And you can’t believe there are also a bunch of Wall Street genius really bet on this with their money. They hold the same point of view that it’s good for google to do so. (Assuming the market efficiency, then why the price of google’s stock dropped when google made the decision if it was a good news?)

Let’s assume it’s a valid hypothesis, then the question is,”so what?”

Here is the logic: if A is true then B is true, but we can’t simply make a conclusion that if B is true then A is also true based on the first half statement.
So logically, we can’t draw the conclusion to prove that google is doing this for its benefits.

 

Market:

Analyzing with the most unfavorable data drawn from the market, google’s decision is for sure violating its commercial interests.

Last year, China’s search engine market was worth about ¥6.95 billion RMB ($1.02 billion US dollar). From the most pessimistic data, Google should have taken up one third of the market. If we are more optimistically about the data, Google occupied 43% market share in China, and with a 15% monthly increase over the past 5 months. The profit generated in China’s market is expected to count 2% out of google’s total profit.

You may or may not notice, Microsoft and Yahoo with less than 10% market share in China respectively, are fighting badly for the huge potential market in China. There is just not any commercial or interest reason for Google to leave this growing market where it has already established a dominant advantage.

Under the modern cooperate system, the company is representing the interests of its shareholders. However, Google has offered another option.

Dual Class Share:

Dual class shares might be the answer for the above question.

Goolge’s two founders, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, together with CEO Eric Schmidt hold 1/3 of the shares in the company. There is a share B, one counts for ten of the voting rights, comparing to share B issued in the market. In other words, Page, Brin and Schmidt have the 80% voting rights for the company’s decision. Google is highly centralized.
The system is supposed to prevent their intervention on the operation while they can still receive their dividends. The problem occurs when it comes to this case, Google has made such an important decision based on the opinions of the three persons. (WJS also had a report on this.)
(By the way, Baidu has the same system as Google in this point. The only person who holds more than 10% of the shares is Li Yanhong (CEO of Baidu, a Chinese). And the rest of shares in the company are almost venture capital. The largest shareholder is DFJ, the company also has invested in Hotmail before. Baidu is nothing different but like a typical US company as what you can observe from
the board structure. Similarly, Li Yanhong also holds the B stock and he make decisions for Baidu with his partners.

 

Don’t be Evil:

It’s not a simple matter to distinguish “do evil” or “do good”. And sometimes it is just meaningless to do such a distinguish. In psychology,it is believed that human’s behavior is often driven by mixed motives. Say a young man saves a drowning girl, he must be a good boy to do so. At the same time, god knows he might have a sexual fantasy on the girl. Additionaly, people who write the reviews are always being too extreme on the topic. Save the girl, you are a hero; but sleep with the girl afterward, you are just a beast with hero’s Burberry dustcoat.

It doesn’t make any sense to make up the boy’s story and the motives parts to explain.
However, we can take Google as a very good example for this. There may be few people remember the defense Google made in the U.S. Congress for its motivation to enter China’s market in 2006. Just google it and compared it with the recent statement Google post on its blog. You will realize that Google could do both “evil” and “good” at the same time and both time plausibly.
And the definition of “evil” does not make any sense either.
As what HanHan¹ says, Government always plays trick. It teaches you a word, but never explains to you the definition. Like, recently it tells you do not send dirty-joke messages, but it never explains to you what is dirty-joke message. Actually, it does explain to you indirectly that “the government defines the meaning of the word!”
Just like the British governor tells us in the movie “The Boat That Rocked“, if the government can’t find any law to ban the Pirate Radio, then just makes a new law! Simple.
This is exactly the same situation for Google’s “don’t be evil” where the staff of Google concludes,” Brin defines the word “EVIL”.

 

Last but not least:

Google’s decisions are made by a small minority. One of the guy’s (Brin) childhood was spent in a totalitarian Soviet period. The behavior of the minority group might also be driven by mixed motives.

So let’s think retrospectively on google’s decision, it is more likely to be a final deal with the government, for its own interest, for the hate of centralism, for the faith on internet freedom, and for the anger over the hacking issue.
People only care about money but with no moral, they are not worth of you trust.
However, the sincere people singing the song of “don’t be evil” are not always doing the right thing.

For me, I don’t really care about the dignity of Google, or if it is for its own benefits or not. No matter Google’s leaving China or not, I hope it continues with its faith of the internet freedom.
And I don’t care what Brin defines “Evil”, what I believe is it’s better to have an internet with less censorship.
———

1. China’s best-selling novelist, champion amateur race-car driver, wildly popular bloggerRead more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1931619,00.html
//source//

文章在翻译过程中与作者考究后一些地方做出了修改。作者最新更新的原文在这里:
http://newkhonsou.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!675308C8A0B112DE!487.entry

ps: 第一次尝试翻译,有些用词也不准确,有些地方只好打比喻,可是又找不到更为恰当的例子。比如男孩救人的地方,上 岸,就是舍身救人的雷锋。上床,就是乘人之危的禽兽。 我想找两个电影人物 一个英雄一个乘人之危的假英雄来直接取代里头的Hero名词都找不到。。。英语素材太匮乏。。。

望各位读者多多赐教~~

update: 30/11/2011

原文因为 Windows LiveSpace迁移到 WordPress平台,地址更新为:

http://realkhonsou.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/google-,统计,逻辑和股权/

Google ,统计,逻辑和股权

April 6, 2010 |  by  |  Case Study, Google  |  2 Comments

{ 不作恶 }

统计:
凯 恩斯是百年难遇的奇才,(自私自利的)理性经济人假设,也久经考验。
但是,他这些话都是有前提的, 抛开随便发挥,就会写出一些看似有理,其实忽悠的东西。比如, Google 的利益论。(利益与伦理:再谈google和百度 http://is.gd/6dFqh)
为什么经济学的自私假设不能推出 Google 的利益论呢?答案还在凯恩斯那里。
他从没否认过个体的非自利选择。但这并不影响用利益解释社会现 象。因为理性经纪人假设是基于国民整体的统计结果。马丁路德金放着好好的律师不干,辛德勒几乎无回报的冒风险,都没关系。统计上,他们两个被四舍五 入掉了。
所以,用理性经济人假设解释社会问题,是靠谱的。但是碰到个公司或者事件,就抛出 这个,凯恩斯也要气得从棺材里翻过身来。
其实,特别优秀的人和组织,往往就是超越统计的个体。严谨 的经济学家不会如此使用这个假设,卖大力丸的,到常这么干。
逻辑:
有 人试图证明, Google 退出中国,不但无害,而且有利。(http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/01/13/google-v-baidu- it’s-not-just-about-china/)
且不说花街一大帮的商业天才,用真金白银下完全相反的下注。(有利于 Google 的决定,怎么会导致股票下跌?)就算是证明成立,我接下来想问得是,So What?
A 真则B真。不一定可以得出B真则A真。
面对逻辑,你证明了半天,也不能的说出后半句: 所以,Google 为了利益就这么干了。
市场:
用最不利的 数据看, Google 退出中国也是违反商业利益的。
去年,中国的搜索市场总值大概69.5亿。 悲观的统计中,Google 也占三成强。 (http://j.mp/5pGSX9) 乐观些的数据中,谷歌中国市场份额为43%。其中,过去5个月增幅超15%。预计2010年盈利将占谷歌总收入的2%。 (http://j.mp/91LoB2)
为了这个巨大的市场,市场份额不足 10% 的 MS , Yahoo 都在含笑死撑, Google 有什么商业或者利益上的理由,撤出已经占领不少,并且还在不断发展的市场?
现 代公司制度,基本可以保证一个公司代表的是全体股东的利益。但是 Google 却在通向赢利的大路上背道而驰。
双 重股权:
双重股权也许就是答案。
Goolge 的两个创始人佩奇,布林,加上CEO施密特,持有公司1/3的股票。但是其中有一种 B 类股票。决策时,这种股票对市场的 A 类股票,有1比10的表决权。三个人持有的B类股票,让他们拥有股东中 80% 的表决权。换句话说, Google 是高度集权的。
本 来,这个制度是为了让资本分得利润的同时,防止他们干预经营。但是用到这件事上,就变成了三个人的意识形态,能决定 Google 这么大个公司的重要经营决策。(WJS的报道也印证了这一点 http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100114 /atc103440.asp)
(顺便说一下,百度也是这种制度。百度持股超过10%的只有李彦红 是中国人,剩下似乎都是美国风投。第一大股东是 DFJ 。曾经投过 Hotmail 。看董事会,百度也是个美国公司。不过,不过李彦红持的也是B类股票。所以经营权,可能还在他和他的搭档手里。)
不 作恶:
区分作恶和行善,不是那么简单得事情。甚至,区分本身,可能都没有太大意义。
心理学认为,人 的行为,往往是由混合动机驱动的。小伙子救溺水姑娘,有高尚情操,同时,可能也有泡妞幻想。但是写评论的文青们往往就是一群二极管,动不动就走极端。上 岸,就是舍身救人的雷锋。上床,就是乘人之危的禽兽。
除了极端揣测不靠谱。动机本身也不靠谱。
这 方面最生动的例子就是 Google 自己。不知道有多少人记得 2006年,Google 在美国国会为自己进入中国的动机所作的辩护。找出来,和今天 Google Blog 上的声明对比一下吧。你会发现,他做完全相反地事情,却可以一模一样的的振振有词。
最 后,“恶”的定义也不靠谱。
韩寒说:“政府就是这样,他永远给你一个动词和名词,然后永远不解释这个名词,比如说,不能反革命,但 从来不告诉你什么是反革命,不能犯流氓罪,但从来不告诉你什么是流氓罪,这次是不能发黄段子,但是从来不告诉你什么是黄段子。”
其 实,所谓“不告诉”,就是“政府任意解释”。
而另一个关于Google的段子里,Google的员工总结说,“不作恶”中的所谓 “恶”,都是由布林定义的。
你不觉得,这和政府的玩法,也没有太多不同?
最 后的话:
Google 的行为是少数人决定的。其中一个的童年(布林),是在集权时期的苏联度过。这几个人的行动,又很可能被混合动机驱动。
所 以,这事,更象是利益,对集权的痛恨,网络自由的信念,被入侵的恼羞成怒和背后与政府的交易(http://tr.im/Kh9f)的混合结果。
眼 里只有金钱,胸中却没有道义的人,写出的东西不会靠谱。
但是,真诚而纯真的高唱“不作恶”赞歌的,未必就不是自作多情。
而 我,不在乎他的情操是否高尚,从中的获利变多,还是变少。 我只希望 Google 无论最后留不留在中国,都继续坚定的,持久地,用各种手段支持自由的网络。
Google 的黑白灰,我并不确信。我能确信的仅仅是:更少审查的网络更好。
PS
这 篇Blog发了之后,又看到这个雷人的消息:
到底被偷走了什么知识财产啊?
不是那两个 gmail,google又拒绝解释。
不过从他有些恼羞成怒的反应看,可能是很重要的东西。
RT @fomou: http://www.brookswelding.com/
< source: 本文分享自 @newkhonsou >